The term “Butterfly effect” was coined by Edward Lorenzbased on the theory that a single flap of a butterfly’s wings in onepart of world could set off a tornado in another part of world. Theconcept – which posits that small variations at the outset can haveprofound implications down the road - can be applied to transportationengineering, especially in the context of non-motorized transportationinfrastructure. To understand why this is so, let’s look at the casestudy of Bangalore City.In Bangalore, pedestrians and cyclists are in the minority,constituting only 8% and 2% respectively of total trips. However theirsmall numbers obscure an important fact - they play an important rolewhen it comes to accessing public transportation.As part of its efforts to create a more sustainable transportationsystem, the government plans to unleash a whole host of publictransportation improvements – a metro, monorail, bus rapid transit,general bus improvements and a commuter rail. The total Traffic andtransportation budget for next 16 years is nearly $12 billion with 79%of the total investment allocated to mass transportation. By contrast, the total investment planned for pedestrians over thenext 16 years is a scant $72 million, or just 0.6% of total investment.The government plans to improve around 350 km of one-way footpaths andconstruct 68 grade separated crossings with the money. The proposedcross-sections of the arterial and collector roads show cycle lanes butit remains to be seen if any exclusive lanes for the cyclists wouldever be built in Bangalore.While the logic of concentrating on public transportation is good,we should not put all our eggs in the same basket. That is to say, themass transit improvements should be accompanied by improvements fornon-motorized transportation, specifically pedestrians and cyclists. Itis no trade secret that access to public transportation plays a vitalrole when people are deciding whether to take public transportation ornot. Attracting the choice riders to mass transportation may succeed bynot only improving the mass transportation itself but also by providingsafe and comfortable ways for people to access it. Improvements innon-motorized transportation infrastructure are cheap and have thepotential of attracting a significant percentage of the traffic. With the city accommodating a large number of “transportationChallenged” people, a small investment – say if just 3% of the Trafficand Transportation budget went to non-motorized transportation – wouldgenerate a sustainable chain reaction. In transportation engineeringevery action does not have equal and opposite reaction. The butterflyis waiting to flap its wings. Just a small pot of money for pedestrianand cyclists would generate benefits well into the future.
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